For months now, the news emerging from across the diamond industry has been colored various shades of sombre, with each analysis referring to some version of the same list of issues ailing the trade: falling polished prices combined with excessive polished inventories, a financing squeeze on Indian manufacturers and a lack of profitablity, low demand for rough, economic uncertainty generated by an unstable geopolitical climate ... take your pick. The question Paul Zimnisky examines is whether this all adds up to a 'crisis'.
The issue of terminology concerning laboratory-grown diamonds has in recent years been a subject of significant debate, deliberation, conflicting guidelines and warnings issued.
Diamond mining stocks have taken a beating in recent years, with most believing there is no end in sight. Post-financial crisis oversupply and rising concerns about the assumed influence of laboratory-grown diamonds have tested the patience and tainted the sentiment of investors in the diamond arena. But the imminent shrinkage of supply and continuing demand for the product is not imaginary. Those who doubt the resilience of the diamond industry and have given up on its ming sector may regret selling low.
Indpendent diamond industry analyst Paul Zimnisky takes an alternative, well-considered approach to recycled diamonds: they could be the shot in the arm the natural diamond industry needs.
"If even a fraction of Chinese production is upgraded to jewelry-quality diamonds, it would have a very significant impact on the global supply which is only in the low-millions-of-carats," independent diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky told Xinhua News journalists Wang Zichen and Shi Linjing.
Multiple forces seem to be conspiring against the diamond industry these days, and if mining stocks are any indication, the wider market takes a pessimistic view of its prospects. But as independent analyst Paul Zimnisky explains in his latest analysis, "Don’t Give Up on the Diamond Industry Just Yet", to take this attitude as a foregone conclusion is to underestimate the resilience of the industry as a whole and overlook not only the enduring intangible value of diamonds, but also the impact of what may well become their much more tangible rarity.
Fomer Dominion Diamond Mines CEO Patrick Evans is planning to launch a company making laboratory-grown diamonds, according to an article by Henry Sanderson of the Financial Times. Evans last month left Dominion - the world's third largest diamond producer by market value and Canada’s largest independent diamond producer - after just over a year at the helm. He is also the former CEO of Canada's Mountain Province Diamonds, a position he held for twelve years.
The 7th Brazilian Conference on the Geology of Diamonds to be held in Salvador, Bahia is attracting speakers and delegates from around the world, the organizers write in a press release. The event, which focuses on the diamond producing industry, will highlight the diamond potential of Brazil, its geology, and new discoveries and developments in the sector. The conference will be held at the Deville Hotel and Conference Centre from November 4 to 7, 2018.
Independent analyst Paul Zimnisky estimates by 2035, lab-grown diamond jewelry will achieve total sales $15 billion, as it grows from its current estimated level of estimated $1.9 billion. He bases his estimate on growth of 22% annually to $5.2 billion by 2023 and to $14.9 billion by 2035, equating to a longer-term growth rate of about 9% rate annually. In terms of market share, his research leads him to conclude that lab-grown jewelry will have gained 5% of the market for diamond jewelry (>$250) and 7% for fashion jewelry (<$250) in the same timeframe.
“We are not planning to change our strategy, integrate in the new market (synthetic product market) and launch our own synthetic production, or sell lab-grown diamonds. It is obvious that ALROSA as a diamond producer and one of the founders of Diamond Producers Association (DPA) hopes that this initiative will lead to differentiation of diamonds and synthetic stones, underlining the status of synthetics as a distinct low-price product.
De Beers Group today announced it has provisionally sold $550 million of rough diamonds for the fourth sales cycle of 2018 (Global Sightholder Sales and Auction Sales), against a backdrop of what has been called "record demand". De Beers published last week a report stating that diamond jewelry demand rose to a record $82bn globally in 2017 after several years of stagnation.
In his latest article, independent analyst and consultant on diamonds and the mining industry, and publisher of the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index, Paul Zimnisky takes a look at, "Why Rough Diamond Prices are at a 52-week High".
It will be very difficult for lab-diamond manufacturers to protect price as production processes and economics improve. Ultimately, this will result in lab-diamonds becoming more of their own separate product class, maybe not in the realm of 'fashion jewelry', but their own, completely distinct product class from natural diamonds. Lab-diamond companies that build a very strong brand through marketing or proprietary jewellery design will be less susceptible to price pressure ... Price is a lab-created diamond’s greatest advantage over a natural equivalent.
Although the sales figures have yet to arrive, and the prices are not made public, Bloomberg's Thomas Biesheuvel has it from "people familiar with the matter" that De Beers has raised its rough diamond prices for the second consecutive cycle. He writes, "De Beers lifted prices between 1 percent and 2 percent, according to the people, who asked not to be identified as the information isn’t public. The company raised prices a similar amount in its previous sale at the end of February.
Independent diamond-industry analyst Paul Zimnisky turns his attention to synthetic diamonds, noting that the price gap between diamonds and laboratory-grown gems has widened by an average of approximately 100% in the past year - doubling from 11-20% a year ago to 28-40% today, according to a survey of prices.
Coming off of 2017, a year in which global diamond supply by volume increased by 11.7% year-over-year, supply is forecast to contract by 3.4% to 147M carats in 2018, writes independent industry analyst Paul Zimnisky. Of the world's top three diamond miners by volume, only De Beers is expected to increase production this year, while diamond output at Russia's ALROSA and diversified-major Rio Tinto is estimated to decline, more than offsetting De Beers' increase. Combined, the three companies represent approximately 70% of global diamond supply by volume.
With the country’s leading public sector banks facing massive financial turmoil following the fraud cases featuring billionaire Nirav Modi and Mehul Choksi, now estimated to involve approximately $2 billion, diamond mining companies may ultimately pay the price as far as sale of rough diamonds to Indian diamond companies is concerned, suggests The Times of India. The TOI turned to independent diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky for insight: “There are two primary concerns as a result of the Modi and Choksi episode.
Independent analyst and consultant on diamonds and the mining industry, and publisher of the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index, Paul Zimnisky has published an in-depth article, "The Discovery of Newsworthy Diamonds is Increasing", analysing the rise of noteworthy diamond recoveries in the past five years in particular. Reprinted from Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics, courtesy of Paul Zimnisky.
Independent analyst and consultant on diamonds and the mining industry, and publisher of the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index, Paul Zimnisky has published an in-depth article on the current state of lab-created diamonds and where the industry goes from here. Reprinted from Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics, courtesy of Paul Zimnisky.
Independent analyst and consultant on diamonds and the mining industry, and publisher of the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index, Paul Zimnisky has published an overview of Natural versus Lab-created Diamond Price (1ct)
The trend of high volumes of rough diamond exports from Antwerp continued in July, while the diamond capital’s polished trade showed signs of life among persistently soft results. According to figures published by the AWDC, on a year-over-year basis, the volume of rough diamond exports increased significantly (20%) for the third month in a row (+55% May, +53% June), totaling nearly 11 million carats, while their value actually declined by 4% to $1.1 billion. The volume of rough imports also increased 15% while their value tumbled by 14%.
Independent analyst and consultant on diamonds and the mining industry, and publisher of the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index, Paul Zimnisky has published an in-depth article on the current state of the diamond industry as it heads into the second half of 2017. Reprinted from Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics, courtesy of Paul Zimnisky.
Independent analyst and consultant on diamonds and the mining industry, and publisher of the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index, Paul Zimnisky has published an in-depth article charting the vicissitudes of rough diamond prices on a quarterly basis for the past 10 years - since the onset of the global financial crisis. We consider this a must-read for anyone seeking to gain insights into the diamond industry as a whole and rough supply-side dynamics in particular.
This article is reprinted from Paul Zimnisky Diamond Analytics, courtesy of Paul Zimnisky.
Diamond industry analyst Paul Zimnisky, author of the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index, provides his thoughts on the recent struggles of diamond mining stocks. Given what is now being widely considered as a recovery and stabilization of the diamond industry last year, an optimistic post-election U.S.
Diamond industry analyst and author of the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index, Paul Zimnisky, takes us on, "A Trip Through the Diamond Industry in March 2017." If there is one trip you make this weekend, we recommend this one.
Zimnisky Rough Diamond Index up 2.1% for week ending Jan 28. Driven by De Beers price raise of 4-5% in >3/4 ct sizes
Diamond industry analyst Paul Zimnisky, in his most recent article "A New Diamond Industry", analyzes three significant changes - and the catalysts for those changes - that have been reshaping the diamond industry in recent years: 1) a new operating discipline, 2) a new generation of consumers, and 3) new technology.
Rough diamond industry analyst Paul Zimnisky, whose Diamond Analytics website brings you the Rough Diamond Index, has assembled a Diamonds 2016 Year in Review quiz. Courtesy of Paul Zimnisky, we invite you, our dedicated readers, to test your knowledge of diamond industry developments in 2016 with this 20 question quiz.
Paul Zimnisky, independent diamond analyst of the eponymous Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index, writes that rough diamond prices are up 12.1% for the year 2016 through mid-December after major miners' efforts to curtail global supply, combined with a healthy 2015 retail holiday season, have tilted the skewed 2015 balance between over-supply and diminishing demand.
Citing a presentation by Mark Cutifani, CEO of Anglo American, the parent company of De Beers, Rapaport News writes that De Beers' prices for rough diamonds fell 5% this year despite the solid recovery of the rough diamond market.
Paul Zimnisky's Global Rough Diamond Price Index hit a 52-week (1 year) high on its latest published date, August 27, ending 0.41 points higher than 1 year ago and 19.55 higher than its lowst point in the past 12 months. The Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index was created to consolidate reliable rough diamond price information and publish current respective price changes of rough diamonds on a weekly basis in the form of an index. The Index is based on an initial value of 100 using data starting on April 4, 2004.
The highly anticipated auction of the largest gem-quality rough diamond in the world, the historic Type IIa 1,109-carat Lesedi La Rona unearthed by Canadian miner Lucara Diamond Corp. in Botswana last November, failed to make auction history as it fell short of its reserve price and did not sell at Sotheby’s June 29 auction in London. The bidding opened at $50 million and was widely anticipated to sell for upwards of $80 million, but the bidding stalled at $61 million, so the diamond went unsold.
"As April 2016 concludes, the diamond industry has without question improved relative to a year ago, however, current industry data and commentary paints a mixed picture as to whether market fundamentals have in fact stabilized enough to support a new wave of sustainable growth continuing into the near-to-medium-term", writes Paul Zimnisky, author of the Zimnisky Global Rough Diamond Price Index to introduce his in-depth analysis of global diamond trade demand, supply and pricing in 2016.
In an exclusive interview with Rough & Polished, analyst Paul Zimnisky discusses a wide range of issues, from diamond production volume and prices to oversupply and mid-stream purchasing trends, profit margins, consumer demand and synthetic diamonds. A few key takeaways:
It sounds much more dramatic than it is, but CBC News reports that De Beers Canada may flood the underground workings of its shuttered Snap Lake diamond mine 220 kilometres northeast of Yellowknife. The company, which is currently suspending operations at the unprofitable mine as a step towards placing the site on care and maintenance, said it will file an extended care and maintenance plan, which will include flooding the mine's underground tunnels (which come with inherent and costly water problems).
Reuters reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be looking to sell some of the country's largest companies, including the world's largest diamond miner, ALROSA. Russian oligarchs are the most likely potential buyers of the stakes, but in contrast to Putin's 2014 insistance that public offerings of Russian state companies be done on the Moscow Exchange - ruling out more liquid, deeper markets in Hong Kong, London, and New York, limiting access to Western investors - the Kremlin said that foreign investors were welcome to participate in the privatization, which has been dri
Rough diamond analyst Paul Zimnisky takes a comprehensive look at the current and projected output for the entirety of the diamond mining industry, concluding that "2016 global diamond production by-volume is forecast to be 137 million (M) carats, or +1.3% over 2015 estimates," despite efforts by De Beers and Rio Tinto to limit global diamond supply. Stable Russian production, new mines, and production increases by Dominion Diamond Corp and Petra Diamonds in particular, he writes, will serve to offset these efforts.
In an unusual step, Zimbabwe says that it will make the Chinese yuan legal tender in the country after Beijing agreed to cancel $40 million in debts. Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa said the move comes as Zimbabwe seeks to increase trade with Beijing, and usage of the yuan “will be a function of trade between China and Zimbabwe and acceptability with customers in Zimbabwe." China is Zimbabwe’s biggest trading partner following Zimbabwe’s isolation by former western trading partners due to Harare’s human rights record.